Case Studies
JFK
Could the JFK attack have been thwarted? YES, with modern scientific threat assessment tools.
Lee Harvey Oswald would likely have been a mass shooter today. In 1963, hijackings and assassinations were much more common attacks. In fact, Oswald tried to convince his wife to hijack a plane with him to Cuba. She refused. At work, he noticed a big prize was coming to Dallas to make him famous once and for all.
Based on Dr. Rahman’s extensive forensic research Oswald, failed to affiliate with Russia-- a clear distal characteristic signaling that he posed a terrorist threat. Oswald traveled to Russia, renounced his US citizenship and then re-entered the United States. Combined with other proximal warning behaviors, today he would have been flagged as a terrorist threat and placed on the radar for protective intelligence including the Kennedy motorcade. Agents could have warned him to stay away from Dealey plaza.
On November 22, 1963, Lee Harvey Oswald left the gold wedding band he had purchased in Minsk, Russia for his beautiful wife Marina in a cup on the dresser in his room—a symbol of his triggering event and also a last resort warning behavior. Marina had refused to take him back after their separation. He was already planning the attack on JFK, and her staunch rejection emboldened his resolve to carry out the assassination.
Oswald displayed many warning signs (going all the way back to his childhood) that behavioral science has shown to precipitate a violent attack. His failed attempt to assassinate General Walker seven months before the JFK attack was not known to the FBI until after the assassination, but other proximal warning behaviors and distal characteristics were apparent. The science of threat assessment was not developed in the 1960's, therefore Oswald's behavior was not adequately assessed to stop his attack.
Adam Lanza: Fame at all costs
Lanza belonged to a depraved digital subculture which glorified mass killings.
After killing his mother, Adam Lanza drove to his old school, Sandy Hook Elementary. Armed with his mother’s Bushmaster XM15-E2S rifle and ten magazines with 30 rounds each, Lanza entered the school and yelled, “Put your hands up,” as he began shooting. When Lanza was done, twenty children and six adults were dead. He took his own life as the police closed in on the scene.
Lanza was diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder and he had obsessional thoughts about germs and contamination. However, he avoided discussing those topics online. Instead, he meticulously studied and relished his identification with prior mass shooters. In that depraved online subculture, Lanza methodically cataloged death tolls (which he eagerly ranked) and weapons of choice.
Lanza fantasized about this subculture and shared his ideology with others online. The misanthropic beliefs articulated in his internet posts are clear, including his “scorn for humanity” and praise for prior attackers for “accomplishing” higher body counts. He shared the glorification of killing with others. He knew that above all killing children would make him special within his subculture and in history. His beliefs grew more dominant, refined, and resistant to challenge over time. He maintained an intense emotional commitment to carrying out violence against his mother and the children of Sandy Hook Elementary school.
